The Anwar Dilemma.

Anwar Ibrahim: A power game plan that fell apart
Written by Kazi Mahmood
Sunday, 16 November 2008

The main plan of the opposition was to get the MP's from Sabah to jump ship and form a new national government with the PR, thus toppling the BN and elect Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister.

The political storm that hit Malaysia on March 2008 is not over and there are signs of a massive cyclone gathering on the horizons. Will Anwar Ibrahim make it or break this time? His strategy, from the start, was to depend on the states of Sabah and Sarawak where the wind of change is still filled with uncertainty.

Anwar Ibrahim is at the center of the current political storm that is hitting Malaysia. He is working day and night to get the majority that is needed to topple the Barisan National (BN) regime but so far, he managed to grab non-Parliamentarians who fell off the ranks within the BN and the United Malays National Organization (Umno) and this is not sufficient for his strategy to be implemented.

It is now obvious that Sabah was the core of the Anwar Ibrahim strategy to run down the BN government by September 16th 2008, six months after the devastating electoral set back suffered by the BN against the loose coalition headed by Anwar Ibrahim. The strategy fell apart after it was clear that Sabah MP's were not willing to be pawns in the power game plan laid by the astute opposition leader.

Wooing the Sabahans with promises of a better economic deal and more power to the locals in the running of the state did not led the political class to bite the bait. Instead, many of the potential MP's targeted by the Party Keadilaan Rakyat (PKR) became vociferous opponents of the Anwar Ibrahim;s plan to topple the BN.

Opposition websites and newspapers were filled with stories of dejection, poverty and abuse of power or of resources in the states of Sabah and Sarawak. The aim was to create a sensation of despair within the BN and among the people of the states. This was expected to force the people of these states to think of alternatives rather than to keep fulfilling their allegiance to the BN.

Cracking Sabah alone could be damaging to the BN government. When the SAPP decided to quit the BN and join the opposition, hopes were high in the opposition ranks that there will be more MP's from the state of Sabah who would join the SAPP in the opposition, thus fulfilling Anwar's ambition.

While the BN were feeling the heat of the opposition campaign to dislodge it from power after more than 50 years of rule, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) were also taken by a storm that shocked the supporters of the PKR and of the Democratic Action Party (DAP). The Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) was being courted by the Umno and offers were being made to create a new 'Islamic' alliance in the country to prevent the loss of Malay-Muslim political power.

The PAS was not in agreement with Anwar's original plans for take over. The leaders of the Islamic party certainly knew how the former jail bird planned to arrest power from Abdullah Ahmad Badawi but the glitches that existed in the plan put them off. The fact that most of the MP's willing to jump ship from the BN to join the PR were non-Muslims would have created a situation of great unrest in the country among Malays-Muslims. The Muslims would not want a regime headed by a Malay but run by non-Muslims in general. The number of MP's of Islamic faith within the PR became an important question that Anwar could not tackle.

The September 16 date clashed with dates that are important in the Islamic calender, such as the Nuzul Quraan. The Muslims in Semenanjung Malaysia felt Anwar was being 'sarcastic' and were showing 'disrespect' to the Muslims by repeatedly calling for a change of regime in Malaysia on that fatal day for the opposition grouping. The PKR failed to rally the majority of MP's to take power based on the predictions and the landmark date set by Anwar Ibrahim himself.

The month of Ramadan in Malaysia is not the same as those in Afghanistan or Iraq and Somalia where war is still ravaging the countries and disturbing the fasting month of the Muslims. It is a peaceful, joyful and enriching month with prayers and recitations across the Muslim community in Malaysia. Setting the target date to take power by overthrowing the ruling regime – a Malay regime by all means – was a mistake by Anwar.

He gave more importance to the date when Sabah and Sarawak effectively joined Malaya to form Malaysia and in the process offended many Muslims who would have otherwise supported his plans to throw Umno out of power. The date could have differed from the September 16th date says critics of Anwar Ibrahim who added that it might have been different had Anwar waited patiently for his time to make a breakthrough.

Most of the observers met by WorldFutures said Anwar has a huge problem that is going to haunt him. He fails to realize that he has to be patient and to work out better strategies before he aims for the Prime Ministerial post. He seems in a hurry in preventing Najib Tun Razak from taking power and fails to understand that he may get better allies within the Umno itself if he has the right political strategy and policies. They cite the PAS which made breakthroughs with Umno leaders on several issues since the parties where Muslims are majority has understood that in the end, they may need each other to salvage what is left of 'Ketuanan Melayu' or Malay political power in Malaysia.

In the meantime, Anwar annouced on his blog that his party made breakthroughs in Sabah where some 12,000 grass root members and supporters of the BN were joining the PKR. This indeed consolidates the PKR in Sabah but it does not deal an immediate blow to the BN since no MP's are leaving their places in the government to join the BN.

Anwar has the charisma and the capacity to bring the supporters of the BN to rally in his favor but has lost the charm and the power to break down the MP's – those he needs to take power in the short run and prevent Najib Razak from becoming PM.

It is undoubted that he will be able to drag more grass root support for the PKR but in the mean time he cannot afford to sit back and watch Najib rise to the occasion as Prime Minister. While the entire nation is feeling that Umno is heading for a slow but sure death, there are reasons to believe that such an institution can still defeat its own ogres and rise as the phoenix from its own ashes.

Efforts within the Umno and outside the party, made to salvage the Umno ideology, cannot be ignored. The party members appeared to have withstood the challenges posed by the September 16th deadline and has re-aligned behind the future PM, Najib Razak. The immediate effect of the announcement of the resignation of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in March next year is the rallying of the party grass roots, leaders and members to the folds.

It must also be said the Umno garnered enough Malay votes in the March 2008 elections while in the Permatang Pauh defeat against Anwar despite the trashing it received, it garnered sufficient Malay votes to indicate that it has not lost all the support.

Permatang Pauh also indicated that the other race based parties in the BN were 'passe' and has to adopt new policies and strategies before they face any elections in the future. The rejection of the BN so far is still focused on the shift of non-Malay voters to the opposition camp, a situation that can be healed if the Umno applies the right policies and strategies, WorldFutures was told.

Nevertheless, pressure is mounting on the Umno to prove that it can seal the various races into a nation and failing to do so will impede its chances of a quick recovery in the next general elections (GE). With these elements in his favor, Anwar Ibrahim should be able to cause more damages to the Umno and the BN in a future GE but it is not certain whether the Umno will tumble and fall this time around. It is also not certain whether the PAS will continue to play second fiddle to the PKR in the future as the party is facing internal pressure to advance further in its agenda of becoming a national party rather than remain a 'Malay' belt party. The PAS has a great need to win more Parliamentary seats in order to influence the course of the nation's future. Winning 20 seats will not help it contain the largely non-Muslim supporters and their agendas for a more secular Malaysia to emerge after the downfall of the BN.

With Sabah now calm and the possibility of a massive cross-over dimmed, the Anwar Ibrahim plan to seize power must now focus on the Umno and its supporters and MP's. Why? The Umno remains the largest political organization in the country. The attempts at chipping away the BN with the wooing of non-Muslim parties to leave the coalition having failed, the Umno is the most attractive and lucrative target for Anwar Ibrahim and the PKR. And that would include, though with limited chances, a return of Anwar Ibrahim to the Umno!

Comments (2)

A new dawn will come!
written by Candidmen, November 16, 2008

Well said Kazi, you spoke of the general perceptions people have over DSAI. He had made a move of blunder to announce his plan of besieging Umno too early and too rashly before he garnered enough supports and laid his route to sure victory! Instead of his 916 proclamation of change realized into a death knell for Umno, he triggered the alarm bell for Umno to regroup and rallied their defected members into fold, though it's not overwhelming, it has caused those hanging in the balance to have hold sway and stayed put to graze the last stack of hay spared for their votes in the Umno divisional election! To a certain extent, it did help to dilute the Malay supports to PKR with Umno consolidating its members!

With Najib looming to take over from AAB as the PM, he managed to pre-empt the powers to thickly veil all his scandals connecting to the Altantuya murder, by releasing Razak Baginda has effectively graved all the evidence which could possibly be unraveled in the court if RB was dragged to face the dock! Now that Najib is safe, DSAI is in the limbo of planning out his next move amid his mind boggling sodomy II trailing his back harassing his already perturbed mind! He needs two brains to conceive plans of effective to curb problems both of party level (PR consensus of ideology) and also on a personal level, how to lighten his shoulder with the heavy baggage which contains all the law suits!

As time flies, the Anwar syndrome has begun to dim and the co-operation amongst the PR coalition seems to be sliding and gradually falling apart which needs immediate mending of DSAI despite his charisma is leaking through the seam! The rakyat after failed to see the realization of cash cheque dated 916, have also fallen into the doldrums and many have lost hopes believing that Anwar can do wonders within the near future before Najib swamps in to pin him 6 feet beneath the mire! Most have been anguished enough of pondering and run out of steam, though not giving up, we can merely pray for Anwar, pray for ourselves the change that we are yearning with the morale in a funk, mostly but not all!

We will continue to fight, with RPK is out and Datuk Zaid Ibrahim joins the rank, we will continue to slug it out! We all understand - Rome was not built overnight and it was built! So does a new Malaysia, it will be built for sure!

New strategy
written by observers, November 16, 2008

I believe the PR need a new strategy, a new ideology. I remember reading what Khairy said on the PR and Anwar. He said the reform cannot rest on the shoulders of only one person and in the PR it is on the shoulders of many people but it is Anwar who is seen as the reform leader. His failure to make 916 happen brings his star further down and it affects the PR, the PKR and the reform movement.

I bet the Umno has a better strategy in place now and that things will move differently soon if the PR continues to have differences that seem 'unbearable'.

Many of the PR supporters too are one sided, stubborn and seem to have an outright anti-Muslim agenda. This too must change if the PR want support from all and sundry in Malaysia! Perhaps worldfutures should inquire among the Muslims about this 'anti-Muslim' thing that may destroy the PR after all!